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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 10th, 2021–Dec 11th, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

New snow with strong winds will drive up the avalanche danger on Saturday.

Expect rapid storm slab development in loaded areas and fast sluffing in steep, sheltered terrain.

Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Weather Forecast

A Pacific 'Party' Front will arrive late this evening, bringing 15-30cm of new snow and 50-80km/hr South West winds along for the ride. Temps to remain cool throughout the storm. Sunday will see another 5-10cm of snow and 20-50km/hr Southerly winds with another pulse of snow arriving on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

45cm of storm snow since Wednesday, with 20-40km/hr Southerly winds creating fresh slabs in exposed terrain features and loose dry avalanches in steep sheltered terrain. The Dec 1st rain crust is ~15cm thick at 1900m, buried ~70cm down and can be found up to 2300m. The mid and lower snowpack is generally rounded, well bonded and strong.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity will increase throughout the day on Saturday.

Numerous reports on Friday of size 1 skier triggered wind/soft slab avalanches in steep terrain and on convex rolls.

Several natural avalanches from the steep terrain on Mt. Tupper up to size 2.5.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.