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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 1st, 2022–Dec 2nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Crowsnest South.

Storm slabs instabilities will take longer than usual to stabilize as cold temperatures persist through the rest of the week.

A buried surface hoar layer down 60 - 80 cm, is becoming primed for human triggering as the cohesion of the overlaying slab increases.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose dry (slough) avalanches observed up to size 1.5, trigged naturally and by skier traffic on Thursday. A couple of small (size 1.5) storm slab avalanches were observed during explosive control work near ridgetops in treeline and alpine terrain on Thursday.

As the upper snowpack settles and gains cohesion we could potentially see larger slab avalanches, that have the potential to step down to deeper weak layers.

Snowpack Summary

Another 20-30 cm has fallen since Wednesday morning. There is now a significant amount (up to 80cm) of low density snow (lacking cohesion) overlaying a potentially weak layer of surface hoar. The lower snowpack is made up of sugary facetted snow at all elevations. A widespread rain curst remains on the ground at the treeline and below treeline.

At treeline, snowpack depths range from 100-180 cm.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night Cloudy with isolated flurries throughout the region, generally light westerly winds at ridgetop, treeline temperatures will be cold around -15 C. 

Friday 

Mostly cloudy with some sunny periods, moderate southwest wind at ridgetop and cold treeline temperatures persist at -15 to -20 C. 

Saturday

A mix of sun and clouds, moderate southwest wind and colder temperatures persist, -15 to -20 C.

Sunday

Cloudy with light snow amounts, moderate southwest wind and temperatures warming slightly to -8 C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.