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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2023–Dec 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Rockies, McBride, Sugarbowl, Kakwa, McGregor, Renshaw, Robson.

Be patient, choose mellow terrain, and give the snowpack time to adjust to the new load.

Storm slabs and buried weak layers may be primed for human triggering.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche reports were submitted on Friday. We expect a natural avalanche cycle to occur overnight and into the early morning with the moderate to heavy snowfall. Human triggered avalanches will still be likely through to the end of the day.

If you go out in the backcountry, please consider sharing your observations on the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

15-25 cm of new snow falling to moderate to strong southwest winds has likely formed reactive storm slabs. This new snow sit on old, hard surfaces, like windslabs or a frozen crust, which are good sliding surfaces for avalanches.

A concerning layer of surface hoar can be found 30-70 cm below the snow surface.

A crust with sugary facets beneath it can be found just above the ground. The snowpack is still shallow for this time of year. Average snowpack depths at treeline range from 65 to 90 cm.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Cloudy. 15-25 cm of snow expected to valley bottom. Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature falling to around -5°C.

Saturday

Cloudy. 2 cm of snow expected. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -5°C. Freezing level rising to 1200 m in some areas.

Sunday

Partly cloudy. No new snow expected. Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -6°C with alpine temperature inversion.

Monday

Mostly cloudy. 3 cm of snow expected. Light to moderate southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -6°C with alpine temperature inversion.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be careful to keep storm day fever from luring you out into bigger terrain features.
  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.