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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 8th, 2024–Jan 9th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Dogtooth.

Although the probability of triggering avalanches may be on the decline, the potential consequences remain significant.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural and explosively triggered avalanches were reported over the weekend, predominantly small in size (1 and 1.5) and storm or wind slab avalanches.

Of note was a large (size 2.5) avalanche that scrubbed down to basal facets, which occurred over the weekend in very steep alpine terrain, on a northerly aspect.

If you go out in the backcountry, please consider sharing your observations on the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

Approximately 20 cm of recent snow sits atop a complex, generally weak snowpack.

The mid and lower snowpack contains several potentially problematic weak layers. Of particular note is a layer of surface hoar down roughly 40 to 80 cm from the surface.

Weak basal facets characterize the lower snowpack, especially in alpine terrain.

Snowpack depths at treeline range from 60 to 140 cm.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy with 2 to 5 cm of snow, southwest alpine winds 10 to 30 km/h, treeline temperature -12 °C.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy with 2 to 5 cm of snow, southwest alpine winds 10 to 30 km/h, treeline temperature - 12 °C.

Wednesday

Mix of sun and cloud with trace snow amounts, west alpine winds 10 to 30 km/h, treeline temperature -12 °C.

Thursday

Mix of sun and cloud with 2 to 5 cm of snow, northeast alpine winds 0 to 20 km/h, treeline temperature -20 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff and/or slabby.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.