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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 27th, 2023–Dec 28th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Watch for higher levels of snowfall on the west island and at higher elevations.

Storm problems will transition to wet snow problems as temperatures rise

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported. Our field team did note some pinwheeling and loose wet debris was present while out on Wednesday.

Please help out your backcountry community by submitting a MIN report if you head out to the backcountry.

Snowpack Summary

10-30 cm of storm snow has fallen on a melt freeze crust that formed over the holidays. Above 1500 m this snow may remain dry and available for transport by the strong southerly winds forming wind slabs. Where the temperature has warmed above 0 °C, this snow will be moist to wet and settling rapidly. Beneath this there is moist snow to ground. Below treeline, you'll find dirt, or shallow and wet snow.

The current snow depth ranges from 70 to 120 cm at treeline, diminishing rapidly below 1000 m.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy with 20-70 mm of precipitation, higher accumulation on the west side of the island. Freezing levels 1500 m, but snow may fall as low as 1000 m. Treeline temperature around 0°C. Southerly winds, 60-80 km/h.

Thursday

Cloudy with 10-25 mm of precipitation. Freezing levels rise to 1800 m. Treeline temperature around 4 °C. Southerly winds, 50-70 km/h.

Friday

Cloudy with 15-25mm of precipitation. Freezing levels rising to above mountain tops. Treeline temperature around 4 °C. Southerly winds, 60-80 km/h.

Saturday

Overcast with clouds breaking late in the day. Trace to 10 mm precipitation. Freezing levels falling to 1800 m. Treeline temperatures around 1 °C. Southerly winds, 40-60 km/h.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from rain.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.