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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2024–Jan 6th, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Flathead, Lizard.

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Stick to low-angle slopes with no large slopes above.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Several small (size 1 to 1.5) dry loose avalanches were triggered in the Lizard Range on Friday.

Wednesday: Near Fernie, two large (size 2) avalanches were triggered with explosives at 2100 m. These failed on buried surface hoar 30 cm deep.

Snowpack Summary

Expecting up to 15 cm of new snow sitting over crusts on solar aspects, surface hoar, wind-affected snow, and facets.

The snowpack contains a couple of thick, hard crusts buried 10 to 20 cm and 30 to 70 cm deep. In most areas, the snowpack has no weak layers below. Except for one location in the Lizard Range, where the crust disappears around treeline and a layer of surface hoar was found. This layer hasn't been found elsewhere in the Lizard Range.

The snow depth at treeline is 50 to 150 cm, with the deepest snowpack near Fernie. Snow depth decreases rapidly at lower elevations.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy with up to 5 cm of snow, southwest alpine wind 35 to 55 km/h, treeline temperature -9 °C.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of snow, southwest alpine wind 15 to 35 km/h, treeline temperature -8 °C.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy with up to 5 cm of snow, alpine wind calm to 15 km/h from various directions, treeline temperature -13 °C.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with a dusting of snow, west alpine wind 35 km/h, treeline temperature -13 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfall.
  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.