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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 3rd, 2023–Dec 4th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Expect avalanche activity to increase over the day as new snow and wind continue to build storm slabs over a surface hoar layer.

Limit your exposure to overhead hazards and enjoy pow turns in conservative terrain.

The Winter Permit System is in effect. Take the quiz and get your permit.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle started Sunday afternoon on the East end of the Park from steep paths on Tupper and Mt MacDonald up to size 2.5. Expect avalanche activity to increase throughout the day on Monday as the storm continues and intensifies.

Artillery avalanche control is tentatively planned for Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Over the last few days, 20-35cm of new snow covers surface hoar and a thin crust of steep solar aspects. This layer is showing Sudden Planner results in snowpack tests. Expect slab formation in exposed areas at and above tree line.

There is ~100cm of snow at tree line, which is below average for this time of year. Many early-season hazards still exist at or just below the snow surface.

The base of the snowpack consists of weak, sugary facets in most areas.

Weather Summary

Finally, a notable system moves into the region on Monday afternoon bringing 10cm by early evening and another 20-30cm by Tuesday morning. Winds are forecasted to be 25-55km/h from the SW at ridgetops with an alpine high of -2 and a freezing level of 1400m.

Tuesday into Wednesday will see another 30-40cm and strong winds with a freezing level of up to 2200m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Be carefull with sluffing in steep terrain, especially above cliffs and terrain traps.
  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.