Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 16th, 2024–Dec 17th, 2024

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis, Bow Valley, Highwood Pass, North 40, Spray - KLakes.

We need snow and it might be coming Wednesday! Until then, continue to be mindful of wind slabs at upper elevations in gully features and below ridgelines. The snowpack is still weak and shallow.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed or reported in the Kananaskis region. However, our neighbours to the NW along the Icefields Parkway in Banff National Park had 2 reported skier triggered avalanches over the weekend. Both of these incidents involved the deep persistent slab. This could be an indicator of conditions in the Kananaskis Region as well. Check the MIN reports on https://avalanche.ca/map for more details.

Snowpack Summary

Yet another day of very little change to our snowpack. The alpine is dominated by wind slabs of varying densities. Lee and cross-loaded gullies are of concern as winds have been a huge factor in recent weather patterns. Snowpack depths are around the 75cm mark at 2300m with the Oct crust still apparent near the bottom. Valley bottom depths are near threshold. Snow depths are well below average for this time of year, and the shallow weak snowpack is generally not conducive to easy travel if you leave an established skin track.

Weather Summary

Tuesday will be mainly cloudy with moderate NW winds. Temperatures should climb to -8C as a high. Very light flurries are expected through the day that will only add up to about 1cm. But after that we may finally get an early Christmas present! One forecast is calling for 20cm through the day on Wednesday, but others are saying only 4cm. Let's go with the former! Unfortunately the wind may also peak above 100km/h, but if that brings 20cm of snow, we'll take it!

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Avoid steep terrain that is rocky and thin.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.