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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2025–Jan 3rd, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Flathead, Lizard.

As winds pick up, expect fresh and sensitive wind slabs to form near ridge crests. Watch for areas where deep pillows of snow accumulate.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday and Wednesday, explosive avalanche control and testing near Fernie, produced numerous small ( size 1 to 1.5 ) slab avalanches, These failed on the storm interface that was down approximately 20 cm. Additional control results included large cornice triggers that produced large (size 2) storm slab avalanches that in one case stepped down 100 cm in depth.

If you head out in the backcountry, let us know what you are seeing by submitting a MIN report!

Snowpack Summary

Snowfall of up to 10 cm from the past 24 hours is dry and unconsolidated and when the wind begins to increase will easily be transported and begin to form windslab. Below this, past storm snow accumulations vary across the region from 30 to 50 cm and are settling. Below 1500 m elevation a previously moist surface is now dense and refrozen. A melt freeze crust can be found throughout the region and is down variable depths from 5 to 20 cm.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally well-settled and stable.

Snow depths at treeline range from 140 to 220 cm.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Cloudy, with isolated flurries. 1 to 5 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

Friday

Cloudy with light snowfall 5 to 10 cm. 5 to 15 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

Saturday

Cloudy, with periods of clearing. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -12 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy, with snowfall 15 to 25 cm. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Be careful with sluffing in steep terrain, especially above cliffs and terrain traps.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.