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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2021–Mar 13th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

No new avalanches have been observed or reported over the past forecast period.

Past Weather

Freezing levels climbed to 1500 meters for a short period and direct solar aspect surfaces became moist. Overall the snowpack remained cohesive as warming and solar effect was brief.

Weather Forecast

Temps and freezing levels will slowly begin to rise as the ridge of high pressure to the east of the forecast area begins to break down. Beginning late Saturday, South East winds will begin to increase and light precipitation will start. Forecast models indicate the precipitation to be focused to the northern half of the forecast area.

Terrain Advice

Caution when transitioning into North aspect terrain with areas of wind loaded snow and steep convex roll features.Caution travelling either above or below cornice features.

Snowpack Summary

A period of overnight clearing and cooling promoted the formation of surface hoar, On solar aspects the surface hoar was destroyed. but is still present on north aspects. Solar aspect terrain surfaces became moist and a crust formed during overnight cooling.The upper snowpack continues to settle and a facet crust combination can be found down 100 to 150 cm. Terrain exposed to the wind is stripped and scoured. The persistent slab from February is now down over 200 centimeters and is dormant and currently non reactive to testing. Below the snowpack is dense and well settled.

Snowpack Details

  • Surface: Surface hoar on north aspects, thin crust on solar aspects.
  • Upper: Settling new snow between 100 and 150 centimeters.
  • Mid: Old unreactive crusts, overall dense and well settled.
  • Lower: Well settled and dense.

Confidence

Moderate - Additional forecaster field observations, uncertainty with Sundays precipitation amounts.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.