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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 3rd, 2021–Mar 4th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/links/goto_e.asp?destination=http://www.avalanche.ca/spaw/2021-03-03-special-public-avalanche-warning

Increasing temperatures and strong solar effect is forecast. This first big warm-up of the season will destabilize the snowpack.

A Special Avalanche Warning is in effect immediately, through Saturday.

Weather Forecast

Isolated warming on all solar aspects!

Overnight: Mainly cloudy. Alpine temperature: Low -7 °C. Ridge wind SW15-35 km/h. Fzl valley bottom.

Thursday: Cloudy with sunny periods. Alpine temperature: High -3 °C. Ridge wind SW15 km/h gusting to 45 km/h. Fzl 1900 m

Friday: Flurries. Accumulation: 6 cm. Alpine temperature: Low -6 °C, High -4 °C. Fzl 1800 m

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack morphing from cold/dry, to warm/moist spring conditions. Top 5-15cm moist snow over a supportive mid-pack  in the Icefields. Windward aspects have been heavily stripped of snow. Highly variable snowpack across the region, with shallow areas failing at the faceted base, while deeper regions have a strong bridge over a weak base.

Avalanche Summary

Areas surrounding the Sunwapta, Gong, and Mushroom Peak region seem to be the most sensitive to natural triggers. Most natural observations have occurred in that zone.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Friday

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.