Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Mar 4 – 5, 2021
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Archived · expired 6 years ago

Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable

Highlights

http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/links/goto_e.asp?destination=http://www.avalanche.ca/spaw/2021-03-03-special-public-avalanche-warning

Increasing temperatures and strong solar effect is forecast. This first big warm-up of the season will destabilize the snowpack.

A Special Avalanche Warning is in effect immediately, through Saturday.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–3

    Continued wind slab development is expected with overnight snowfall and moderate SW winds.

    Wind slabs in the alpine and exposed treeline features have the potential for wide propagations across connected features.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Afternoon sun is packing a punch on lower elevation, SW through W slopes. Ice climbers: be extremely cautious. Overhead hazards can catch sun early.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Caution in thin facetted snowpack areas where triggering is more likely. This is a low probability but high consequence problem.

Weather Forecast

Isolated warming on all solar aspects!

Overnight: Mainly cloudy. Alpine temperature: Low -7 °C. Ridge wind SW15-35 km/h. Fzl valley bottom.

Thursday: Cloudy with sunny periods. Alpine temperature: High -3 °C. Ridge wind SW15 km/h gusting to 45 km/h. Fzl 1900 m

Friday: Flurries. Accumulation: 6 cm. Alpine temperature: Low -6 °C, High -4 °C. Fzl 1800 m

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack morphing from cold/dry, to warm/moist spring conditions. Top 5-15cm moist snow over a supportive mid-pack  in the Icefields. Windward aspects have been heavily stripped of snow. Highly variable snowpack across the region, with shallow areas failing at the faceted base, while deeper regions have a strong bridge over a weak base.

Avalanche Summary

Areas surrounding the Sunwapta, Gong, and Mushroom Peak region seem to be the most sensitive to natural triggers. Most natural observations have occurred in that zone.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Friday

Regions covered