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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2021–Mar 15th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Temperatures stayed warm overnight, giving minimal surface crust recovery. Solar slopes will destabilize quickly with input from the sun.

Weather Forecast

The high pressure breaks down today as a weak cold front moves in from the West.

Sunday: Sunny, increasing cloud in the afternoon. Alpine High -1 C.  Light S wind. Freezing level (Fzl) 1900m.

Sunday night: Flurries (3-5cm). Low -6 C.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. High -3 C. Light W wind. Fzl 1500m.

Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud. Low -9 C, High -5 C. Fzl 1400m

Snowpack Summary

The surface snow has been moistened (and is now refrozen) on all aspects below 2000m and has been through several melt freeze cycles on solar aspects. Settled dry snow can still be found on high north aspects. The mid and lower snowpack is generally settled and strong.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, several loose wet avalanches, up to size 2.5, were observed by field teams and in the highway corridor. A large, size 2.0, cornice fall was also observed on the North side of Mt. Bonney.

Fresh cornice activity was reported off of the North side of Cheops Friday afternoon.

Confidence

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.