Regions
Vancouver Island.
Avalanche danger ratings reflect the highest danger level expected over the course of the day.
No new avalanches reported or observed over the past forecast period.
Past Weather
Warm daytime temperature and clear sky promoted surface warming on most aspects and elevations. North aspect terrain above 1500 meters may have been saved from the warming effect but freezing levels did rise above 2000 meters for short periods during daytime warming.
Weather Forecast
The weather is changing, a ridge of high pressure begins to deteriorate and a strengthening weather front approaches the area from the north of our region. Models anticipate increasing south west wind and up to 20cm of new snow, with the highest amounts focused on the northern zones of our area. Freezing levels are forecast to remain low. Wednesday: 15 to 20 cm of new snow, Winds Moderate to Strong from the Southwest, Freezing levels 700 meters with a day time a high of 900 meters. Temps at 1500 meters -4Thursday: No new precipitation, Winds variable light to moderate, Freezing levels 200 meters with a day time a high of 500 meters. Temps at 1500 meters -6Friday: 20 to 25 cm of new snow , Winds Strong from the South West Freezing levels 600 meters. Temps at 1500 meters -5
Terrain Advice
Practice patience as new storm slabs will require time to bond to the well formed crust.Choose low angle and well supported terrain.Caution when transitioning into freshly wind loaded slopes.Avoid travel both above and below cornices.
Snowpack Summary
Overall we have a variable snowpack surface. Snow surfaces are a mix of a near impenetrable crusts and on protected north aspects above 1050 meters some dry snow Most of the surfaces Tree line and below have firmed up today and with the forecast new snow arriving, expect sensitive wind slabs to be widespread.
Snowpack Details
- Surface: Variable surface conditions, dependent of elevation and orientation.
- Upper: reactive crusts at 30 and 100 cm
- Mid: Well settled and dense.
- Lower: Well settled and dense.
Confidence
Moderate - Generally well aligned forecast models, continued forecaster field observations and both MIN and email public submissions, thank you and please keep those coming.
Problems
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.