Stormy conditions are increasing avalanche danger. A tipping point may occur, where riders will start triggering a buried weak layer.
New wind and storm slabs will form as the snow falls and the wind blows on Thursday and Friday. The wind is forecast to be strong and from the southwest, so use particular caution near ridges in lee terrain features. As the snow accumulates in sheltered areas, new storm slabs may develop on all aspects and at all elevations.
Snow and an overall warming trend may make a weak layer of surface hoar that developed late-January reactive to riders. Prior to this storm, the layer was found 15 to 60 cm deep across the region, being deepest in the south and shallowest in the north. This layer has been the most sensitive right at treeline, but it may extend up into the alpine, and be found in openings in the trees below treeline. The likelihood of triggering this layer is expected to increase once a cohesive slab develops above it.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear skies, 20 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -9 C.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds and afternoon snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 40 to 60 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -9 C.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -10 C.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -10 C.
A few wind slab avalanches were triggered by riders in the north of the region on Sunday and Monday, but in general avalanche conditions have been quiet.
The likelihood of triggering new wind and storm slab avalanches will increase quickly as the snow falls and the wind blows Thursday and into the weekend. This is a good time to dial back your terrain choices, with some uncertainty on if/when the buried weak layer will become reactive.
New snow and strong wind will form both wind and storm slabs on Thursday and Friday. The wind is forecast to blow from the southwest, so watch for the deepest and touchiest deposits in lee slopes near ridges at treeline and alpine elevations. The air temperature is forecast to be quite a bit warmer than the past week, so slabs are anticipated to develop quickly.
The snow will load a widespread persistent surface hoar layer. Prior to the storm, the layer was 60 cm near Renshaw, 40 cm deep around Torpy and McBride, and 15 to 25 cm deep further north. Reports suggest this layer is most prevalent around treeline elevations, but likely reaches into the alpine and down into the trees too. It may sit above a crust below 1600 m. The likelihood of triggering this layer will increase as the snow turns into a cohesive slab.
There are presently no deeper concerns in the snowpack.
