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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 26th, 2021–Mar 27th, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Avalanche danger will increase over the weekend as snow and wind will progressively form thicker and touchier slabs. Stick to sheltered low angle terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing of the incoming weather system. We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Scattered flurries with 5-15 cm of snow, 50 km/h west wind, treeline temperatures around -5 C.

SATURDAY: Flurries with another 5-15 cm of snow bringing 24 h totals to 15-30 cm, 50-70 km/h southwest wind, freezing level climbing to 1700 m, treeline temperatures reach -3 C.

SUNDAY: Another frontal system delivers 15-25 cm of snow, 40-60 km/h southwest wind, freezing level drops from 1500 m to valley bottom at the end of the storm, treeline temperatures drop from -3 to -6 C.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny, 30 km/h northwest wind, treeline temperatures drop to -12 C.

Avalanche Summary

We have no reports of avalanche activity since Wednesday's storm when there were a few reports of natural and human triggered storm slab avalanches. These slabs have likely stabilized since then, but new storm slabs will be a concern above 1500 m this weekend. Wet loose avalanches will also be possible at below treeline elevations.

Snowpack Summary

A series of storms over the weekend will result in significant accumulations of snow above 1500 m. By Saturday afternoon there will be 15 to 30 cm of fresh snow and strong wind forming touchy slabs. The new snow will bury old stubborn slabs at upper elevations and a crust below treeline. Recent weather patterns have helped old persistent weak layers heal. We were previously concerned about a facet layer from the mid-February cold snap that resulted in few large cornice triggered avalanches in the first half of March (and is now 150 cm deep), but now the important avalanche problems just involve the upper snowpack.

Terrain and Travel

  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
  • Use careful route-finding and stick to moderate slope angles with low consequences.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 20 cm of new snow.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.