If Sunday's winds are stronger than forecast, the Avalanche Danger in the alpine may rise to Considerable. Watch for blowing snow at high elevations.
Confidence
Fair - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
On Sunday we can expect very light flurries, moderate northwesterly ridgetop winds, and alpine temperatures of about -18. Light snowfall is expected by Sunday night, and should continue until Tuesday as a pacific frontal system pushes eastward. With this system, we can expect strong westerly winds with freezing levels staying at valley bottom.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been reported, although I suspect there was some wind slab activity in response to Friday's wind event.
Snowpack Summary
Snow surfaces are variable with northerly, wind exposed aspects showing firm wind pressing, or a scoured exposed crust. More sheltered locations have up to 30 cm of low density, faceted snow. In the alpine and at treeline, strong northerly winds have transported this snow into stiff wind slabs on opposite slopes. Up to 70 cm below the surface you will likely find a hard, thick crust which formed mid-December. At higher elevations this crust has facets (sugary) snow above it and well-preserved surface hoar up to 10 mm in size in sheltered locations at treeline and below. Where the crust exists, it may be bridging triggers from penetrating to deeper persistent weaknesses. However, on high alpine slopes above where the rain crust formed, or in areas where rain didn't occur, deeply buried facets may still be susceptible to triggering, especially in thinner snowpack areas.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.