Avalanche danger is expected to increase as the new storm develops. The freezing level and precipitation amounts will decide how high the danger ratings climb.
Confidence
Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Cloud is forecast to increase on Monday morning as a Southwest flow develops into the region. Expect strong Southwest winds by Monday afternoon combined with a trace of precipitation and freezing levels climbing up to about 2000 metres elevation. Very strong Southwest winds, light precipitation and freezing levels rising up to about 2200 metres elevation are forecast for Tuesday. Continued Very strong Southwest flow on Wednesday with light precipitation amounts; the models may change with respect to precipitation as this system develops, stay tuned for more information in the next few days.
Avalanche Summary
No avalanche activity reported. Have you seen anything recently?
Snowpack Summary
There is at least one, maybe more, problematic layers in the South Rockies snowpack. Last weekends 30 - 60cm of storm snow buried a weak layer of facets over a crust which formed during November's dry spell. That interface is probably around a meter down now. Not much is known about the reactivity of this layer, nor the slab above it. But, it doesn't take much of a leap of faith to understand that a meter deep slab sitting on a persistent weak layer is a potentially bad thing.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.