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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2014–Jan 3rd, 2014

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Friday:  The snow that started accumulating today should continue till the end of the day Friday. The expected total snow accumulation are looking to be around 35 cm with the biggest amounts S and W of the region. The strong W winds will switch from the NW. Freezing level will continue dropping during the day to hit valley bottom by the end of the day.Saturday:  Snow should keep falling lightly during the day as the tail of the system keeps feeding the E part of the region. Sunday: A ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern bringing clear and valley bottom freezing levels. Winds should calm down to become light.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported. Ski cutting near Crowsnest Pass produced no results. We expect avalanche activity for the coming days in many areas.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy amounts of snow and strong winds from the W-NW is the reason the dangers rating is rising. With these conditions, expect a natural avalanche cycle. The persistent weak layers (PWL) that have been giving sudden planar snow test results but been unreactive to skier traffic could most likely become active again with the addition of this new load. These PWL are more reactive in the Flathead and Elk Valley South and consists surface hoar, crust, and/or facets down 50-90cm. The bottom of the snowpack is also very weak in many areas creating the possibility of having avalanches running to the ground in shallower snowpack, rockier ground areas.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.