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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 8th, 2012–Jan 9th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Drizzle in the valley will bring another 3-5 cm to higher elevations on Sunday night. The wind is expected to decrease to about 30 km/hr at the ridge tops by Monday morning. Some light snowfall accumulating a couple more cm on Monday until about noon around Terrace. Smithers is expected to be quite a bit drier; Sunday night and Monday precipitation combined should only be about 5 cm. Temperatures are expected to drop to about -15 in the alpine by Tuesday morning as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region. Wednesday is expected to be mostly clear, but not as cold as Tuesday. The next system should be on the coast by Thursday. There may be some strong outflow winds on Tuesday afternoon as cooler air moves out towards the Pacific.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche reports from this region. The forecast precipitation was confined to the near coastal areas around Terrace. I expect that the southwest part of this region did experience a natural avalanche cycle.

Snowpack Summary

I do not know the extent of the wind effect from the storm on Saturday night, but I suspect that windslabs have developed in the lee of southwest winds. There is a rain crust down about 40 cm that exists up to approximately 1000 m. There is now approximately 80 to 120cms of storm snow sitting above a surface hoar/crust/facet layer that was buried mid-December. The increasing depth of this weak layer makes it difficult to trigger. I would not ignore this layer yet, as it could still be triggered by large loads such as rapid loading by new snow or rain or cornice falls. It could also be triggered by riders in shallow snowpack areas or where rocks poke up near the surface. The mid- and lower snowpack layers are well consolidated and generally strong.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.