Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 11 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Pockets of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger still linger on wind loaded near and above treeline NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects steeper than 35 degrees due wind slabs. MODERATE avalanche danger exists on all other slopes steeper than 35 degrees due to a combination of wind slabs and isolated storm slabs. Large human triggered avalanches remain possible today and may remain likely in some areas. Identify where wind slabs and lingering isolated storm slabs exist and avoid them and their run out zones.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    3

    Even though the snowfall may have abated yesterday afternoon, the winds did not. They continued to transport snow and wind load leeward slopes all night and will continue to do so today. While the chances for natural wind slab avalanches have diminished, large human triggered wind slabs will remain possible today on wind loaded N-NE-E aspects and cross loaded NW and SE aspects and may remain likely in some places where the most wind loading has occurred or in complex or extreme terrain. Wind loaded near and above treeline terrain will hold the largest wind slabs, but they could also exist in more sheltered locations and in below treeline terrain due to the strength of the winds during this storm. These wind slabs will most likely fail on weaknesses within the storm snow like density changes or graupel layers or the interface between the wind slab and the snow below. Wind slab avalanches that do occur today could be large and could have serious consequences.

    Clues like recent wind slab avalanches on similar slopes, shooting cracks on lower angle wind loaded terrain, cornices above a slope, blowing snow, wind drifted snow, ripples in the snow surface, and other wind created textures can help identify where wind slabs may exist. Use observations and clues like these to find where the wind slabs lurk and then avoid those wind slabs and their run out zones.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Storm slabs should have become more difficult to trigger today since the storm snow weaknesses that they fail on typically gain strength faster than other weak layers. That being said, some storm slab avalanches may remain possible in isolated areas or in complex or extreme terrain where the storm snow weaknesses linger. Couliors, gullies, steep convex rollovers, unsupported slopes, and other steep complicated terrain features on NW-N-NE aspects will hold the best chances for lingering storm slabs. Recent storm slab avalanches on similar slopes, human triggered shooting cracks, test slope failures, and snowpit tests can all provide good information about whether or not storm slabs exist and remain problematic.  

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday reports from Jakes Peak told of widespread small natural avalanches that failed during the early morning on a density change near the base of the new snow. These avalanches occurred on 40 to 44 degree slopes in below treeline terrain and remained relatively small and did not propagate very far. Some of the avalanche paths above the Alpine Meadows road also produced natural avalanches between 7 and 7:30 am, but the details of what kind of avalanches and what the failure layers were remain unknown. We also received another vague report of a human triggered avalanche somewhere in Ward Canyon that carried a person a long distance and buried him up to his neck, but we do not have any details on this slide. 

Observations from the Donner Summit area, on Hidden Peak, and on Jakes Peak also saw some skier triggered shooting cracks that failed on the density change near the base of the storm snow in sheltered below treeline areas or that failed at the base of newly formed wind slabs in wind loaded areas. On Hidden Peak one wind loaded 38 degree test slope failed under the weight of a skier after it had been undercut. Snowpit tests and hand pits on Hidden Peak also yielded unstable results within the storm snow. 

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