Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Monday
Weather Forecast
Mild temperatures and strong ridgetop winds persist through the forecast period. SUN: Cloudy with sunny breaks. FZLVL tops out near 1900m in the afternoon. Trace to 5 cm of snow expected. Ridgetop winds Strong to Extreme NW. Moderate Chinook. MON: A fast moving cold front crosses over the region, the timing of which is a bit hard to pin down. The current best guess is late in the day Monday. Regardless, freezing levels will fall with the passage of the cold front & 5 - 10 cm of snow is expected. Winds should increase with frontal passage, we can expect strong winds out of the W, switching to NW in the evening. Tue: A ridge of high pressure slides into the region bringing more seasonal cool temperatures, high solar & light winds.
Avalanche Summary
Our field team remoted a size 2 avalanche from the flats Wednesday. It's worth checking out the details of the incident report linked to this forecast as it illustrates just how tender the persistent slab problem is in the So. Rockies. On Saturday a group of sledders remote triggered a size 1.5 avalanche which failed on the Feb.09 SH in the Coal Creek area on a North facing, 37 degree slope at 1600m.
Snowpack Summary
Strong winds and have formed wind slabs up to 20 cm deep in wind exposed terrain at and above treeline as of Saturday afternoon. The Feb. 09 surface hoar is now down between 40 & 90 cm. The depth varies throughout the region. This weak layer continue to perform, our head field technician was out for a ski and noticed a remote triggered avalanche on Saturday. See the details below. Snowpack tests continue to show sudden moderate failures on this interface. This weekend the upper snowpack is changing character as strong to extreme winds at ridge top & mild temperatures form the old storm snow into a more cohesive slab. Lingering concern remains for basal facets, particularly in shallower snowpack areas with steep, rocky start zones. Our field team was out in the Crowsnest Thursday where they observed a much stronger snowpack. The So. Rockies forecast is intended to give trends for the region as a whole, and as such, conditions will vary between the different sub regions.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.