Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Apr 11 – 12, 2014Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Check out the forecaster's blog for more info on how to deal with spring avalanche conditions.

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–4
    Daytime heating makes cornices droop and become unstable. Also, if anything is still able to trigger a deep persistent weak layer, it's a cornice release.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–3
    The forecasted light snow accumulations and above freezing temperatures below 1400 m could create loose wet avalanches under this elevation or dry loose avalanches in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

A slab avalanche size 2.5 was observed on Mount Hosmer out of a South facing alpine feature. Even though it most likely dates back from a couple of days ago, it shows that the deeper instabilities could still be sensitive to being triggered by intense solar and warmth.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tonight and Saturday: A trace to a few cm of precipitation is expected overnight and tomorrow. Freezing levels should drop tonight and rise back to about 1400 m tomorrow.Sunday: Expect mainly sunny conditions and freezing levels rising to 2000 m by the afternoon and light winds. Monday: Similar conditions are expected with even warmer temperatures and higher freezing levels and possibly no overnight freeze.

Snowpack Summary

The forecasted light precipitation should fall over a melt-freeze crust in the alpine or on a moist surface at lower elevations.  Last night's re-freeze and today's above freezing levels up to ~1900 m. has created a moist surface up to that elevations on all aspects. Another similar melt-freeze cycle is expected overnight and tomorrow, most likely creating soft spring conditions up to ~1500 m on all aspects and solar aspect at higher elevations if the sun comes out. Snow stability is expected to decrease as the day progresses tomorrow, increasing the chance of cornice fall and wet loose avalanches.The deep facet/crust persistent weakness buried at the beginning of February (now down up to 80-100 cm) should stay on your radar, especially on south facing slopes when the sun will be shining. Any activity at this interface would be large and destructive.

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