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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 11th, 2014–Apr 12th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

Check out the forecaster's blog for more info on how to deal with spring avalanche conditions.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tonight and Saturday: A trace to a few cm of precipitation is expected overnight and tomorrow. Freezing levels should drop tonight and rise back to about 1400 m tomorrow.Sunday: Expect mainly sunny conditions and freezing levels rising to 2000 m by the afternoon and light winds. Monday: Similar conditions are expected with even warmer temperatures and higher freezing levels and possibly no overnight freeze.

Avalanche Summary

A slab avalanche size 2.5 was observed on Mount Hosmer out of a South facing alpine feature. Even though it most likely dates back from a couple of days ago, it shows that the deeper instabilities could still be sensitive to being triggered by intense solar and warmth.

Snowpack Summary

The forecasted light precipitation should fall over a melt-freeze crust in the alpine or on a moist surface at lower elevations.  Last night's re-freeze and today's above freezing levels up to ~1900 m. has created a moist surface up to that elevations on all aspects. Another similar melt-freeze cycle is expected overnight and tomorrow, most likely creating soft spring conditions up to ~1500 m on all aspects and solar aspect at higher elevations if the sun comes out. Snow stability is expected to decrease as the day progresses tomorrow, increasing the chance of cornice fall and wet loose avalanches.The deep facet/crust persistent weakness buried at the beginning of February (now down up to 80-100 cm) should stay on your radar, especially on south facing slopes when the sun will be shining. Any activity at this interface would be large and destructive.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.