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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2019–Jan 13th, 2019

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

A major input of heat into the snowpack can wake up buried weak layers. A lot of uncertainty exists as to what will happen when temperatures climb. Uncertainty is best managed with conservative terrain.

Confidence

Low - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods. Light south wind with occasional moderate gusts. Alpine temps near 0 C, temperature inversion with above freezing layer between 1500-2200 m.SUNDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods. Light south-southeast wind with moderate gusts. Alpine temps reaching +4 C, temperature inversion with above freezing layer between 1500-3000 m.MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Light variable wind. Alpine temps reaching +6 C, temperature inversion with above freezing layer between 1500-3000 m.TUESDAY: Sunny. Light variable wind. Alpine temps reaching +4 C, freezing level 1800 m.More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday morning in the Sea to Sky region, explosives triggered large (size 2) cornice failures. As the snowpack warmed through the day, 30-50 cm surface snow gained reactivity as small slabs on convex and unsupported features. Similar snowpack properties can be expected as the snowpack warms in the South Coast Inland.On Thursday, a recent natural wind slab avalanches to size 1.5 were observed on wind-loaded and cross-loaded terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures have moistened surface snow and promoted settlement. On Saturday morning, a melt-freeze crust was noted on all aspects up to 1900 m and south to southwest aspects in the alpine. Cold, dry snow may still be found on north aspects in the alpine along with wind slabs. Cornices are large and suspect with warming. Warm temperatures are expected to penetrate to high alpine areas, Saturday night poor overnight recoveries are expected up to 2000 m.Around the Coquihalla, the top 30-40 cm recent snow sits on a thick 10-15 cm crust up to 1550 m. This crust is not found in the north of the region.Professionals continue to monitor two suspicious layers in the mid-pack consisting of surface hoar (feathery crystals) in sheltered areas and a crust on steep south-facing slopes. The surface hoar is reported to be most prominent on north and east aspects at treeline, and has been well reported in the southern part of the region in areas like the Coquihalla Summit and Manning Park. In the lower snowpack, a crust/facet (sugar snow) layer may still be reactive to heavy loads such as a cornice fall in isolated areas.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.