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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2019–Jan 16th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

The possibility remains of triggering a deep layer of sugary facets. A diligent approach to avoiding steep, thin, and rocky slopes is recommended.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods, light wind, alpine temperatures drop to -12 C.WEDNESDAY: Dry with a mix of sun and cloud, light southwest wind, alpine high temperatures around -6 C. THURSDAY: Light snowfall, roughly 5 cm, light wind, alpine high temperatures around -10 C.FRIDAY: Isolated flurries, moderate southwest wind, alpine high temperatures around -8 C.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported in the region, but natural avalanches continue to be reported in the Kananaskis region to the north.On Saturday, a size 2 natural deep persistent slab avalanche was observed on a south facing feature around 2100 m (more details here). There is also a great MIN report from the neighboring Lizard Range where a group of sledders share about their near miss on a steep southwest facing feature at ridgecrest.On Friday, we received a great Mountain Information Network observation of natural activity on solar aspects (more details here). A size 2-2.5 natural avalanche was also reported on a north aspect at 2200 m on Friday. This avalanche was likely triggered by a rock fall, and ran on the deep persistent layer at the base of the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Recent warm alpine temperatures left crusty surfaces on southerly aspects. The snow appears to have remained dry on northerly aspects.Large variability in snow depths still exists in the region, ranging from almost no snow to nearly 200 cm in some areas. For average snowpack areas, expect to find weak and sugary faceted snow around 50 to 100 cm deep, which extend to the ground. This weak bottom half of the snowpack has been the culprit for large avalanches in the region over the past few weeks.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.