Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Considerable at all elevations today. Human triggered avalanches 1 to 3' in depth are likely and natural avalanches are possible. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and a conservative approach are essential if you travel in the mountains today.

Avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    8-10” of new snow has accumulated on Thompson Pass overnight and the precipitation rate is expected to increase throughout the day today.  Human triggered avalanches are likely in areas that have accumulated the most snow and areas where wind has transported snow creating wind slabs. Take note of how much snow has fallen in the areas that you travel.  As precipitation rates increase throughout the day today the likelihood of triggering an avalanche within the new storm snow will also rise.  Watch for shooting cracks, and collapses (whomps). Digging hand pits and jumping on small test slopes are also good ways to test how reactive the new snow is.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    As of 6 am this morning, 6-7" of new snow has fallen at sea level. The snowline is expected to climb to 1700' by mid day as the current storm front moves on shore. As the snow turns to rain today, it is likely that wet loose avalanches could occur naturally below 1700' as the top layer of new snow becomes saturated with water. Pinwheels are an early sign that the snowpack is becoming saturated and it is time to steer clear of steep, larger slopes. Terrain traps multiply the consequences as even small wet loose avalanches can pile up deep debris. 

    Once the snowpack become saturated, stay off slopes steeper than 30 degrees today.

    (1/10/2025)

    Pinwheels like those shown are a clear visual indicator that wet loose activity is possible.  These often show up as dry snow initially transitions to moist.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    Multiple persistant weak layers were buried by last weekend's snowfall including a couple layers of buried surface hoar and a rain crust sandwich with facets in the middle. The 100” of new snow that fell, overloaded these weak layers in the mid elevations where they were present, causing widespread natural avalanches. These layers are now buried deep in our snowpack 1.5-2 meters, and have not shown any signs of sensitivity over the last week. It is becoming increasingly unlikely that a human or a machine could trigger an avalanche on one of these layer, but with more heavy snow overnight and throughout the day today, these layers could be tested again with this increased load. Steep convex slopes in the mid elevations, and rocky terrain where the coverage is thinner because of wind redistribution are the most likely trigger points should this layer be overloaded by the new heavy snowfall today.

    Natural avalanches from 1/12 that failed at a deep persistent weak layer.  

    It is possible these released sympathetically from the artillery triggered school bus slide.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

NONE.  

More info is available about the last avalanche cycle by clicking the Avalanches tab or the weather history tab just below the bottom line statement.

Forecast Discussion:

After a week of mild weather, another round of heavy precipitation will once again shake up our stability and surface conditions. The snowline is expected to begin at sea level and rise today, topping out around 1700 ft. 

If you travel in the mountains today, a conservative mindset will be essential. Storm slabs from heavy snowfall and wind loading above 2000' will be sensitive to human triggers. Keep track of how much snow has accumulated throughout the day in the areas that you travel and steer clear of large, steep slopes and runout zones. The new storm snow could also put pressure on the persistant weak layers buried deep in our snowpack. It is becoming less likely that these weak layers will be triggered, but today could be a test to see if another round of loading from heavy precipitation can penetrate down and create an avalanche on these old layers. Increase your margins by sticking to familiar low angle terrain as our snowpack undergoes another round of heavy snowfall.

Additional Information:

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Weather History tab that is located above the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Glide cracks that existed on the buttresses from Nicks through Cracked Ice on North aspects at mid elevation were stagnant prior to the recent snowfall and are now filled in.  It will be worth watching for them to reappear, but this may be a problem of the past.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 1/18 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow January Snowfall Inches Season Total Snowfall Valdez     0    ~    19     10     45 Thompson Pass    0    ~   N/O    170    N/O Nicks    0    -    94     N/O 46 Mile    0     ~   20    10 N/O

Regions covered