Avalanche forecast

Rattlesnake

West Central Montana Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Fresh wind slabs will build today as a storm impacts the region. The avalanche danger will increase through the day and likely rise to Considerable at upper elevations by the afternoon. Human-triggered avalanches will become likely on wind-loaded slopes. If we get the upper end of forecasted snow totals, storm slabs may develop in wind-sheltered areas.  Stay alert for signs of instability like recent avalanches and shooting cracks, and steer clear of steep, wind loaded terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Fresh wind slabs will build today as a storm impacts the region. Strong west winds are already blowing, and we can expect 6 to 10 inches of new snow by this evening. The hazard will increase through the day and will likely reach Considerable at upper elevations by this afternoon. Human-triggered avalanches will become likely on wind-loaded slopes. 

    Wind slabs appear smooth and rounded and are often found just below ridges and in cross-loaded gullies. Cornices, wind lips, and drifts all indicate wind direction and loading. Signs of instability like shooting cracks warn you to stay off steep slopes. The best way to mitigate this problem is to avoid wind-loaded slopes over 33º. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    If we get the upper end of forecasted snow totals, reactive storm slabs may develop in areas sheltered from the wind. Stay alert for signs of instability like shooting cracks or recent avalanches. Remember, even a small avalanche into a terrain trap like a gully, roadcut, or bench could bury you. 

Avalanche Discussion

We have two significant storms lined up for the next several days. The first storm began impacting the region last night and will continue into tomorrow. West winds picked up ahead of the storm yesterday afternoon, gusting 40 to 50 mph at the Point 6 weather station. The west winds will remain elevated into this afternoon and then decrease. Snowfall totals are forecast to increase as you go north, with the heaviest snowfall around Seeley Lake and lighter snowfall in the Southern Bitterroot. Snow totals will range from 4 to 15 inches by this evening, favoring the Seeley Lake zone. Light to moderate snowfall will continue tonight into tomorrow, and storm totals will likely reach 15 to 20 inches in favored areas. 

Fresh wind slabs will build today, and the avalanche danger will increase throughout the day and into tonight. If we get the upper end of forecasted snow amounts, storm slabs may develop in wind-sheltered areas as well. The avalanche danger will start off today at Moderate and likely rise to Considerable by the afternoon in many areas. 

A stronger storm will arrive Sunday night, bringing widespread heavy snowfall and strong winds. The current forecast is calling for some impressive precipitation totals with potentially over 3 inches of snow water equivalent in favored areas by Wednesday. Fresh avalanche problems will grow rapidly and become touchy and dangerous. Stay alert for changing conditions. 

Please let us know what you find out there this weekend by submitting an observation. 

Ski and ride safe.

Regions covered