Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Just as the windslabs from earier in the week have become more difficult to trigger,  the arrival of new snow and wind will usher in a new round of windslabs.  This new snow will be sitting on a variety of old snow surfaces, some very weak.  The windslab problem will be increasing throughout the day as the snow increases. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wind slabs will be developing throughout the day as the snow and wind increase.  North through East slopes in wind protected areas might harbor weak old snow surfaces like surface hoar and preserved powder.  Windslabs sitting on these weak surfaces will be easiest to trigger.  Monitor wind slab depth, use small relevant test slopes and assume stability will decrease late in the day.   

    Remember that burnt forests can act like alpine terrain and not slow the wind transported snow.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Cornices are lurking mighty large in some areas.   Tam Rim has some monsters hanging over the North faceing terrain.   They are most stressed with changes in the weather.  Give them space and respect. They can break much further back than expected.  

Avalanche Discussion

Warm temps over the past few days have allowed the windslab problems from earlier in the week to settle down.  No avalanche activity was reported in the past two days.  Saturday's snow surfaces were a mixed bag of melt freeze crust on sunny aspects, wind packed snow in the alpine,  preserved powder on North faces and even surface hoar spotted in wind sheltered areas around treeline.  The new windslabs will be most touchy when sitting on the surfaces with preserved powder and/or the surface hoar.   Take the time to measure windslab depth and investigate if its bonding to the old snow.  Timing will be important, the hazard will rise as the snow piles up later in the day. 

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