Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A storm continues to move through the Seward Zone today bringing new snow and strong southerly ridgetop winds. There will be good chances a human could trigger a storm slab avalanche in places that have received 10" or more of new snow. Wind slabs up to 2' deep could also be easy for a human to trigger in places exposed to the wind. Watching for red flags like recent avalanches and staying out from underneath steep slopes will be important today. This zone recently opened to snowmachine access, and we have only been there once, so we have a lot of uncertainty and recommend extra caution.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Department of Transportation Avalanche Closure Notification for Wednesday January 22nd, 2025:

There will be intermittent traffic delays Wednesday January 22nd, 2025 on the Seward Highway for Avalanche Hazard Reduction work. From milepost 95-100 on the Seward Highway, North of Girdwood and South of Anchorage, at Bird Flats. Motorist should expect delays of up to 45 minutes between 09:00 AM and 12:00 PM. Updates will be posted on the 511 system. http://511.alaska.gov

This is a new forecast zone for us. We are excited to gather more information from both our field days as well as from folks out riding. If you get out in the Snug Harbor or Lost Lake areas we'd love to hear what you see. Drop us a quick note or send in some photos on our observation page if you have a minute! If you haven't seen it yet, check out our field day from Friday near V-Max.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The Lost Lake area has recorded 6" of new snow since yesterday and 5 more inches are forecast today above 1,000'. The mountains closer to the ocean could receive 6 to 8 more inches of snow throughout the day. There will be good chances a human could trigger a storm snow avalanche in places that have received 10" or more of new snow. Watch for red flags today such as heavy snowfall and recent avalanches. Riding or jumping on a small test slope is a good way to test how the new snow is bonding to the old surface. The Cooper Lake SNOTEL only recorded 1" of new snow so this problem is more likely to be encountered closer to Lost Lake where heavier precipitation rates are occurring.

    Wind slab: Strong southerly ridgetop winds blew yesterday and are forecast again today. These winds are blowing the new snow in the upper elevations into wind slabs that could be up to 2' deep. Wind slabs are usually located below ridgelines and in cross-loaded gullies and can be identified by feeling for firm snow over soft snow. A shooting crack is a sign the snowpack needs more time to stabilize.

    Snug Harbor opened to snowmachine access on Thursday, January 16, just about a week ago. Very little is known about the snowpack in this area and large avalanches had occurred near V-Max just before the opening. We urge extra caution and an assessment mindset while we gather information from this area. We really appreciate the information and photos we have received from folks so far, thank you!

    Cornice: As each storm passes cornices continue to grow. We got some interesting information from some snowmachiners in the Snug Harbor/V-Max area on Saturday. They found cracks in the snow that were about 15 to 20' back from some cornice edges. These cracks were difficult to see and large enough to swallow a sled. Corices are prime for failure during a storm so steering clear both above and below cornices today is a good plan.

    Dry Loose Avalanches: Natural dry loose avalanches were observed in Turnagain and Summit Lake two days ago. This type of avalanche is not generally as dangerous as a slab avalanche, but could catch us by surprise and carry us into trees or over a cliff if enough snow becomes entrained.

    Storm totals from yesterday above 1,000':

    • Girdwood: 1.3" water (~12" snow).
    • Turnagain Pass: 1.3" water (~12" snow).
    • Summit Lake: 0.1" water (~trace -1" snow). 
    • Seward/Lost Lake: 0.6" water (~6" snow). (Another 0.7" water is expected today or 7-8" snow.)

    (1/21/2025)

    Snow total forecast for 3pm Tuesday to 3pm Wednesday. 

    Image courtesy of our friends at the National Weather Service Anchorage office

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