Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist at all elevations. Strong westerly winds and recent snow have created cohesive slabs on top of a weak and faceted snowpack that existed before storms over the last week. You can easily trigger avalanches big enough to bury you on persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack or on the ground.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees paying attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses.  Triggering a smaller wind slab avalanche on the surface has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    A couple of inches of snow yesterday and continued strong west winds will drift snow into stiffer more cohesive slabs.  Watch for obvious wind-drifted pillows and stiffening of the snow underfoot avoiding being on underneath slopes that are actively loading, paying attention to shooting cracks off your ski tips.  A smaller Wind Slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche that may not be survivable. 

    Strong winds yesterday and today were easily drifting the lower-density snow from Thursday's storm into stiffer more cohesive slabs. This included open areas below treeline.  Pay attention to shooting cracks off your ski tips  

    Photo: Andy Bond 1/12/24

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Recent snow and strong winds have built 2 to 4-foot slabs over a very weak and shallow snowpack that existed before last week's storms. Weak facets and depth hoar near the ground have struggled to handle recent loading events as we've had natural avalanches almost every day over the last week.  Give avalanche path runouts wide berths as these types of conditions lend themselves to remotely triggering avalanches from the flats below.  Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses. 

    Facets that formed on the surface during the dry period of December into January are now buried beneath cohesive slabs.  These faceted weak layers are widespread and continue to remain reactive.

    (1/12/2024) Photo: Andy Bond

Avalanche Discussion

Over 3 feet of snow and close to 3" of SWE have fallen in the last week. More recently moderate to strong winds and a little bit of snow continue to load slopes and create reactive sensitive slabs that rest on top of weak faceted snowpack that formed during the end of December into early January dry period. It probably sounds like a broken record by now as avalanche danger has been elevated over the last week, but the snowpack continues to remain sensitive to even a little bit of loading. Natural avalanches over the last week have been observed at all elevations on west through north to southeast aspects.  Although yesterday's storm wasn't a blockbuster, even a couple of inches of snow and strong winds was enough to tip the scales on some slopes.  In recent travels, the snowpack continues to remain very talkative with widespread loud audible whumpfs and cracking.  The one thing that has changed over the last week is that the size of avalanches is getting bigger as slabs continue to grow.

Don't underestimate below treeline terrain, the underlying snowpack remains incredibly weak, and recent snow over the last week has been settling and stiffening into a more cohesive slab as well as strong winds that have impacted areas that are more open and exposed.  Avalanches below treeline have been running on depth hoar near the ground, taking with it most of the season's snowpack. 

 

With dangerous avalanche conditions continuing to persist, the one tool we have to manage avalanches is terrain selection.  Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential today, avoiding being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees.  With high pressure forecasted over the next week, we should see avalanche danger slowly start to ease.  Until then continue to practice good travel habits sticking to lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain.  

 

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