Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You may be able to trigger avalanches large enough to bury people or vehicles. You may or may not see or hear warning signs before triggering a thick, wide slide. Isolated wet avalanches could release on their own on slopes sheltered from the wind while they are directly facing the sun.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    The odds of triggering large, Persistent Slab avalanches are decreasing, but the consequences remain severe.

    In areas sheltered from the wind, expect to find 1-2.5 foot thick slabs. In terrain affected by the wind, you'll find 2-5 foot thick slabs. The avalanches are failing on a variety of weak layers: facets and/or surface hoar on shadier aspects, and crust+facet combinations on sunnier slopes. Large natural and human-triggered avalanches occured on several aspects in recent weeks. Assume this problem exists on all upper and middle elevation slopes and on shadier, lower elevation aspects.

    Some facts to help you travel safely today:

    • You may or may not experience snowpack cracking or collapsing before triggering a slide. This is disconcerting.
    • You may be able to trigger avalanches remotely—from flat or gentle terrain below, above, or to the sides of steep slopes.
    • Avalanches could break well above you, either while you are descending or at the bottom of a slope.
    • Some recent avalanches were hundreds to thousands of feet wide.

     

    (1/19/2024) This photo shows several large avalanches that were remotely-triggered by riders in the Beaver Creek drainage. The furthest away slide is over 800 feet wide, and failed a half mile from where the avalanches were triggered, out of sight on the right side of the photo.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Many wet loose slides released in craggy, alpine terrain in recent days. Isolated wet loose avalanches could release naturally today. Temperatures remained over 32F overnight in many areas, and today will be hot and sunny. Breezy SE winds will keep many slopes cool, but wet loose slides are possible on steep slopes sheltered from the wind while they directly face the sun. The chance of wet avalanches will follow the sun around the compass: E-SE aspects in the morning, SE-S aspects mid-day, and S-SW-W aspects in the afternoon. 

    Avoid slopes where you're sinking more than a few inches into a wet, soggy snowpack. Pay attention to the terrain above you, and don't loiter under large, sun-drenched avalanche paths. 

    These relatively small slides could trigger the destructive Persistent Slab avalanches described above. 

    (1/29/2024) Multiple wet loose avalanche sthat ran on a WSW aspect near 9900' feet near Decker Pk in the Sawtooth Mountains on 1/29/24. 

Avalanche Discussion

We have seen little slab avalanche activity in this zone in the past week. While the chances of triggering large slides is gradually decreasing, it is not zero. The crux: accurately assessing which slopes are still teetering on the edge is quite difficult. 

If you decide to play or travel in significant avalanche terrain, you will be rolling the proverbial dice. 

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