Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Heavy rain will create dangerous avalanche conditions at upper elevations on Monday. Avoid steep slopes if you are sinking deeply into wet, heavy snow. Wet avalanches may run farther than expected on slick crusts, especially in areas closer to the crest where greater amounts of recent snow exists. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Temperatures have bumped up above freezing at all but the highest weather stations in the zone and will continue to increase throughout the day on Monday. While many areas hold just a dusting of new snow, areas closer to the Cascade Crest at higher elevations have 6-10 inches of snow overlaying crusts and weak surfaces. In these locations, wet loose avalanches are likely as the Mountains get hit with heavy rain from an atmospheric river. With little new snow, most avalanches will remain on the small side. But at higher elevations near the crest, avalanches may be large enough to bury or kill you, and even small avalanches can be dangerous in consequential terrain. Monday is a good day to avoid avalanche terrain in locations where more than 6 inches of recent snow exists. If you find you are sinking deeply into wet, heavy snow or observe natural small wet avalanches and rollerballs, it is best to stick to low-angle slopes. Use caution and don't linger beneath steep terrain where you could be caught in an avalanche from above.

    (1/10/2022)

    Example of a small Wet Loose avalanche on a cut bank that occurred.

    Photo: Andrew Kiefer

Avalanche Discussion

Monday will be a wet and wild day with heavy rain, strong winds, and rapidly changing conditions. Most of the east south zone suffers from inconsistent and low snow cover. NWAC forecasters on Manastash Ridge Thursday and near Rimrock Lake (Hwy 12) Tuesday found only a dusting of snow at mid and lower elevations. The prolonged dry and warm weather of January and February really took a toll on the snowpack. Much of the snow melted back to bare ground at lower elevations, making access challenging in some parts of the zone. Similarly, shallow spots in the snowpack on more southerly slopes and near ridges shrunk, exposing rocks, trees, and dirt. Fortunately, the snowpack increases dramatically as you ascend in elevation on more shaded terrain. It is in these areas close to the crest at high elevations that will have elevated avalanche hazard. With this variability, it will be important to observe recent snow depth as you travel and maybe look to the West South forecast if you are traveling close to the crest. 

Regions covered