Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Heightened avalanche conditions exist in steep, wind-sheltered terrain on the north half of the compass.  You can easily trigger shallow sluffs where the snow surface is soft.   Use defensive riding techniques or opt for mellower slope angles in terrain where you could get pushed over cliffs, forced into trees, or dragged down gully.  

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Dry loose avalanches (sluffs) are the most problematic on the north half of the compass, especially in wind-sheltered terrain near and below treeline.   Where the upper snowpack is weak and cohesionless, you can easily trigger small sluffs on slopes steeper than about 35 degrees. Ski cuts, moving across the fall-line while descending, or choosing lower-angled slopes are effective techniques to manage this problem. These point release avalanches will accumulate more mass in long-running, steep terrain. Use caution above gullies where an avalanche can pile more deeply and above trees and cliffs where the consequences of a small sluff will be exacerbated. 

    A great example of sluff management in terrain where a loose dry avalanche could be more problematic because it gets funneled down a gulley.  

Avalanche Discussion

We've bumped the danger to MODERATE near and below treeline to account for the increasing threat posed by loose snow avalanches.  With each day of dry, cold weather, the upper snowpack continues to slowly deteriorate, gradually increasing the potential size, distribution, and sensitivity of loose dry avalanches (sluffs).  There was not a dramatic change overnight, rather, small and incremental changes over the past couple of weeks have brought us close to, and now past, the Low/Moderate boundary for travel advice.  Sluffs are running a little larger and becoming a little harder to manage with each day that we are stuck in the dry spell.  This video from yesterday describes some sluff management strategies for riding steep terrain.  Simply choose slope angles less than 35 degrees or stick to the southern half of the compass if you don't want to deal with moving snow.  Sluffs have the potential to grow larger in size in sustained steep terrain, such as Climax Chutes.  Sluffs can also gouge deeper into shallower and weaker snowpacks, most commonly in terrain that shed its whole snowpack during the holiday cycle, such as Schuylkill Ridge and Mt. Axtell.   

There are fewer loose dry avalanche concerns above treeline because snow surfaces are more wind affected.  With wind effect comes the isolated potential to trigger a thin wind slab, such as this slide yesterday.  Recent drifts from northwesterly winds are neither large nor widespread, but they could ruin your day in extreme or high consequence terrain.  Steer around smooth, drifted looking features if you're riding somewhere that you can't afford to get swept off your feet.   If you find loose, soft snow in the alpine, it will also be easy to sluff in steep terrain.  

Regions covered