Avalanche forecast

Swan Range

Flathead Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions are developing and an Avalanche Watch remains in effect until 5 pm today. New and wind-drifted snow will form slabs large enough to bury and injure a person. Stick to slopes with lower slope angles that are free of overhead hazards. The avalanche danger may rise to HIGH by late afternoon if more snow arrives than forecast, or tonight as more snow accumulates.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New and recent snow will form slabs sensitive to the weight of a rider. Winds will drift snow into thicker and harder slabs along ridge crests. Any triggered avalanches will become larger and more dangerous throughout the day. Pay close attention to your surroundings. Signs of recent avalanches, shooting cracks, or whumpfs should direct you toward lower-angle terrain free of overhead hazards.

    NOTE: New snow is landing on weak surfaces. This may cause avalanches to propagate wider distances or be triggered remotely. Today is a day to have a "Stepping Back" mindset.

    (2/10/2024)

    Skier-triggered soft slab avalanche (SS-ASu-D2R2-I) that caught and carried a skier a short distance in the northern Whitefish Range. This occurred on Saturday, February 10th. More snow has fallen since this avalanche was triggered. 

Avalanche Discussion

Conditions are changing! As conditions change, so should our travel habits. Plan to dial back to more conservative terrain choices throughout the day. New and recent snow is piling up and landing on a weak layer of near-surface facets above a slick crust. This may cause avalanches to break wider distances and in unexpected ways.

Today’s avalanche forecast relies on today’s precipitation forecast. There is high confidence that the forecast area will receive anywhere from .5 to 1 inch of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) by Tuesday Morning. This can translate into upwards of 1 to 2 feet of snow. Although the liquid water amounts may not be overly impressive, snowfall rates of 1 inch or more an hour can rapidly increase the avalanche danger. Forecasted snowfall rates like this make it even more important to pay close attention to changing conditions. The avalanche danger WILL rise throughout the day with continued snowfall.

Precipitation amounts vary throughout the forecast area and within each forecast region. The Swan Range will see the higher end of precipitation totals. Models show precipitation favoring terrain west of Flathead Lake, so expect the avalanche danger to increase rapidly the further south you travel. The Flathead Range should catch any spillover from the Swan Range. I’d expect to see snowfall totals of 6 to 12 inches in the Flathead Range. The crest of the range will likely wring out the remaining moisture, so expect less snow in southern and central Glacier National Park. The Northern Whitefish Range picked up close to an inch of water yesterday (Sunday) and may be favored with today's snow as well. Areas like Ten Lakes, Red Meadow Pass, and Gibraltar Ridge will see elevated avalanche danger. 

Regions covered