Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Highlights

Sun and warm temperatures will destabilize recently accumulated dry snow. Avalanche concerns will focus on slopes with 6" or more of snow above a stout crust. In these areas, reduce your exposure to steep slopes with heavy/sticky snow or rollerball activity.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Recent dry snow has fallen above 5000 ft and we expect this snow may be susceptible to mild temperatures and sunshine before clouds roll in Friday afternoon. Gauge the depth of the snow above the uppermost firm crust to assess the size of a potential avalanche in your terrain. If you find more than 6" of snow above that crust, small natural or human-triggered avalanches are possible on steep, open slopes. If you're finding closer to 10" or more, those avalanches could push into the large range and you should increase your margin for error, including from slopes heating up on the slopes above you. If you're finding moist, sticky snow stomp on some inconsequential test slopes to find out whether the snow is sliding on a crust or failing as a wet loose avalanche. Natural or human-triggered rollerballs suggest that the conditions for wet loose avalanches are developing.

    In the Hurricane Ridge area, there's around 8" of snow above the crust on shaded slopes. We don't know whether the incoming clouds will redirect enough radiation onto these traditionally colder aspects. Upper elevation slopes in the Hurricane Ridge area and more widespread areas above 5000 ft in the southern or eastern Olympics could have more than 10" of snow above the 2/11 crust in many areas.

    (2/22/2024)

    Rollerballs under ski cut, a precursor to wet loose avalanche activity. Victoria overlook area, Hurricane Ridge. 

    Photo: Sam Siemens-Luthy

Avalanche Discussion

Temperatures have been fluctuating above and below freezing eat day at Hurricane Ridge elevation since 2/16. This has limited snow accumulation to around 5000 ft and above. At Hurricane Ridge, just over an inch of snow accumulated since 2/18, giving Hurricane Ridge a total snow depth of around 30". Snow profiles on N and NW aspects near Victoria Overlook have a similar (32" depth). 1-2" of moist, fresh snow rests on a friable crust. Below that, nearly moist decomposing fragments extend down to the stout 2/11 crust down 8" below the snow surface. Coverage remains poor on the southern half of the compass, where only 2-4" of snow resides on grassy surfaces. Gullies might hold barely rideable snow in places due to wind transport.

A below-average snowpack continues to be the proverbial thorn in our side in the Olympics. Thin to non-existent snow cover at lower elevations and on southerly aspects can make travel challenging. However, numerous obstacles, including run creeks and open holes, can make it much more dangerous. Take it slow and give yourself time to deal with these persistent hazards. You may find better coverage in the southern and eastern Olympics, which have been favored by February storms.

NWAC may issue a gray "No Rating" for an elevation band when there is not enough snow to present an avalanche hazard.

Regions covered