Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A quick load of new snow and strong winds will produce large avalanches today. Avalanches could occur on all aspects and elevations, running far into lower angle terrain. Natural and human triggered slides are very likely. Stay off of, and out from underneath, slopes greater than 30 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Widespread avalanche problems exist today. Wind slabs can be found at all elevations, on northerly aspects, with cross loading possible on west and northeast aspects. These slabs could be 3-5 FEET deep, and produce a deadly avalanche. 

    Storm slab avalanches are also prevalent, and can found anywhere the new snow has fallen. 30+ inches of new snow at treeline, storm slab instability will be at an all-time high this morning. These avalanches could fail 30 inches deep.

    These avalanche problems will be certainly large enough to bury and or kill you. Give the snowpack time to adjust to this new load, and stay out of avalanche terrain. 

    (1/20/2024)

    Soft Slab Avalanche

    Photo: Samuel Clairmont

Avalanche Discussion

A NWS Winter Storm Warning will continue until 1pm today. This low pressure system has largely provided what was expected, large amounts of new snow and strong-winds out of the south. Around 12–18 inches are expected this morning through today before the storm tapers off. By this evening, precipitation will have mostly ended, with a couple inches possible overnight. Winds should also begin to lighten through today, and become northeast by tomorrow. This northeasterly shift will push in some cooler air, bringing the snow level back down to town. 

As this storm begins to push out later in the day, temptations could arise to ski avalanche terrain as visibility improves. This is highly not recommended. Instability will continue through the night, with large avalanches possible on all slopes greater than 30 degrees. Patience is very important at this phase of a storm system. It is imperative to give the snowpack the time it needs to adjust to the newly added load.

Recorded new snow totals (in inches) as of 6 am Monday:

  • Mount Eddy: 28
  • Castle Lake: 27
  • Old Ski Bowl: 20 (This is probably pretty far off. Winds are preventing the weather station from seeing accurate snow accumulation)
  • Callahan Area: 21

Forecasters assessed mid-storm conditions in Old Ski Bowl yesterday. You can check the observation out HERE. The extent of the wind effect was pretty surprising. Strong winds reached as low as Bunny Flat, producing wind ripples on the road to Old Ski Bowl, and large drifts in more exposed terrain. Old snowmobile and ski tracks were exposed in many areas. It was quite challenging to decipher how much new snow had actually fallen, because it was being transported so quickly.

Regions covered