Avalanche forecast

East Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A few inches of new snow and wind may have created chances to trigger small, soft wind slabs on high, exposed slopes. Heed signs of instability such as shooting cracks or whumphing collapses if you find them. Early season hazards exist such as shallowly buried rocks and trees, and these may also increase the consequences of a small avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The snowpack is thin, but you might find small wind slabs in higher, exposed locations from the light snow that fell on Friday. Increasing winds and incoming snowfall later in the day Saturday may also quickly form windslabs that could be triggered by people. For the most part, we're talking about a shallow instability that you can easily look for as you gain elevation. Check for visual signs of drifts, wind etched snow, and look for signs of instability such as shooting cracks or collapses. Slopes directly below ridgelines and small cornices are likely spots to find this instability.

    Shaded, sheltered terrain such as north facing bowls, and steep pitches mid-slope may still hold weak faceted snow from the long, dry spell in mid November. Be especially leery of these areas, especially if easily punching through into weak snow or if you hear whumphing collapses. It's easy to check for this layer with a quick hand pit. If you find sugary, weak snow and a slab on top, then avoid slopes steep enough to avalanche nearby.

    Example photo showing wind drifting on a slope.

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

It's early season, and the snowpack is shallow. Lots of early season hazards exist such as shallowly buried trees, rocks, and other obstacles. In terms of our snowpack, we're still gathering info about what's out there on the ground, so this forecast comes with a fair amount of uncertainty with limited information as a starting point.

As a brief season history up to now- It's worth highlighting the long, dry spell that took place during the middle of November. The shallow snow on the ground became weak and faceted with time. Strong winds and days of sunshine created firm surfaces in many places in the alpine, and slopes exposed to direct sun. Weak, faceted snow likely still exists out there and one may find preserved weak snow, especially in the shaded, sheltered slopes. An Observer noted being able to easily push a pole through the snowpack to the ground in the Hairpin Valley on the 22nd, this indicates a weak snowpack. On the 25th, an observer found light rain had fallen to Washinton Pass, another observed it all the way up to Blue Lake Col. The rain had created a few very small wet loose avalanches, and snow surfaces were reportedly saturated to about an inch down.

On Saturday evening, an incoming winter storm will quickly change what the mountains look like and quickly increase avalanche danger. Make sure you are prepared for this storm to come in, keeping in mind your exit plan and timing. If you make it out on Saturday, please submit an observation!

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