Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Above treeline on Mount Shasta, new snow and strong westerly winds have created wind slabs and drifting snow. Windward slopes are icy and slick with significant slide-for-life potential; an ice axe, 12-point crampons, and helmet are essential. Upper mountain hazards are serious and require conservative travel and proper equipment. Near and below treeline, exposed ground and obstacles dominate an unusable snowpack.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Triggering wind slabs is possible today in wind-loaded terrain above treeline. Both the likelihood and potential size of avalanches increase as you move into higher, windier terrain. Avalanches may be easy to trigger where recent storm snow sits on slick crusts.

    Persistent winds over the past several days—primarily from the southwest, west, and northwest—have formed slabs along ridgelines and in bowls. While we have not been able to confirm conditions at upper elevations firsthand and some uncertainty remains, weather station data clearly indicate conditions conducive for significant wind loading.

    Expect wind slabs near and just below ridges, along mid-slope moraines, around rock outcroppings, and near the upper margins of bowls. Cracking or slab movement on small test slopes is a clear sign of instability. Manage this hazard by identifying and avoiding wind-loaded slopes.

    Strong west to northwest wind

Avalanche Discussion

Winter has arrived this week with warm temperatures and strong winds. A usable snowpack currently exists only above approximately 9,000 feet on Mount Shasta. Below that elevation, the ground was bare prior to today’s storm (see photos). At present, travel requires a roughly two-mile walk from Bunny Flat before winter recreation is even possible. Conditions are sparse enough that even Chris Carr, Jason Koster, and Sam Marano are not up there right now. As of this morning, the Old Ski Bowl weather station is recording 2 inches of new snow on terra firma... so maybe you might see them?

That said, conditions are changing, and it will only take a couple of solid storms to get things going. For now, the Eddy Mountains, Castle Lake area, Pilgrim Creek and Deer Mountain Snowmobile Parks, Sand Flat Winter XC Trails, Mount Shasta Nordic Center, and Snowman’s Hill remain snow-free.

A final reminder for anyone adventuring onto the mountain: wet, misty, warm storms like we are seeing can encapsulate the mountain in an icy glaze. We want to underscore the importance of proper equipment, training and experience for safe travel. Please be careful.

TONIGHT! Feed the stoke meter at our annual MOVIE NIGHT - Mountain Medics - 5:30pm - Food, drink and a good time available. Let's go!

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