Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a 2-3 feet deep slab avalanche on a layer of buried surface hoar is becoming less likely yet still possible. Continue good travel protocols like checking out the snowpack and watching your partners from a safe spot on all slopes steep enough to slide (steeper than 30 degrees) where not only a persistent slab avalanche can be triggered, but also a loose dry avalanche in the new snow that can run with you and or push you into terrain traps like tree wells, gullies, and cliffs.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    You are most likely to encounter a layer of buried surface hoar on Northern aspects, especially in the Southern portion of our advisory area near West Mountain. Thin areas of the snowpack near rocks and trees near ridgelines that have been protected from wind and Sun are likely spots to trigger an avalanche. In some of our test pits, we have seen weak layers of facets propagating fractures above a Sun crust on some solar aspects. 

    The last human-triggered avalanche was on a layer of buried surface hoar 2-3 feet deep 4 days ago when a rider was lucky to have kept his head above the surface of the snow. He was wearing an airbag pack and was kind enough to share an observation on our observations page from just South of our Advisory Area.

    Wednesday, near Hum lake we found this layer to be hard to trigger yet still propagating fractures (ECTP26SC).

    This leaves us in a low-probability D2-D3, a high-consequence scenario that should drive your conservative decision-making and extra cautious travel protocols on slopes steep enough to slide (30 degrees +). 

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The upper 1-2 feet of the snowpack is light and unconsolidated and will likely run down with you on slopes steeper than 35 degrees. The steeper and more exposed a slope is will amplify this problem and either send you into terrain traps like gullies and cliffs, tree wells, or other places you would rather avoid. 

    Use good sluff management and travel protocols like thinking about the consequences in a line you are scoping and watching your partners from a safe location.

    (3/8/2023)

    Brief Sun on loose dry powder :)

    Photo: GH

Avalanche Discussion

Today's Forecast is sponsored by Brundage Mountain Resort. Thank You for supporting the Payette Avalanche Center!

Deep snow and cold temps are making people smile, but don't get on steep slopes without checking out the snowpack to see if weak layers of facets and or buried surface hoar exist. Upon digging test pits we have been able to spot these layers with our naked eyes on mostly northern aspects but also on Solar aspects above a crust. Stability is better in the Northern portion of the advisory area than in the South near West Mountain where weak snow has consistently surprised riders and sliders.

Bump up your safe travel protocols while having fun, but be suspect on slopes steep enough to slide on all aspects, keep eyes on your partners from a safe location, and wear a transceiver, shovel, and probe on your person.