Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger is on the rise as a system impacts the area today. The likelihood of avalanches failing around a foot deep within new and windblown snow will increase through the day. These may impact deeper weak layers in the snowpack, producing larger avalanches failing 2' deep or deeper. Approach steep terrain with caution today, and be mindful of the slopes above you.

MONDAY AVALANCHE OUTLOOK: Precipitation will taper tonight, but strong winds are expected to continue to blow snow into fresh wind slabs tomorrow. Expect similar avalanche conditions, and be aware that shifting wind directions may create avalanche problems on a variety of aspects at upper elevations.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Forecast Operations: We have transitioned to our late season forecasting schedule, issuing forecasts Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday. Our last forecast will be Thursday, April 30th followed by our annual "Spring Tips" on May 1st. 

Hiking on trails below avalanche paths this time of year is dangerous and not recommended.  Avalanches may release into valley bottoms, covering up summer hiking trails. This includes the Marathon Jeep Trail, which is a terrain trap for most of the hike. Other trails in this area that can be dangerous right now include the Russian Lakes trail to the Barber Cabin, Crescent Lake, Ptarmigan Lake, and Victor Creek Trail. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Recent Avalanches: Last week, several slab avalanches were observed on the north side of Lowell Peak and on a southerly slope where a larger avalanche ran to the ground.

    Active weather has returned, and avalanche danger is on the rise today. Winds have been increasing since around sunset last night, averaging 10 to 20 mph and still on the rise as of this morning. We are expecting 4 to 6" of new snow in the Lost Lake area, and up to 4 to 6" closer to the coast. It is likely we will see avalanches failing around a foot deep or deeper at and above treeline. Avalanche size and likelihood will continue to increase through the day, and we may see avalanches failing on deeper weak layers (more on this in Problem 2).

    Expect increasing avalanche danger at higher elevations. Fresh wind slabs will be forming near ridgelines, below convex rolls, and in steep gullies. Wind speeds are strong enough that we may see slabs forming further downslope than usual. Be on the lookout for warning signs like shooting cracks, collapsing, and active snow transport, and look for better surface conditions and more stable snow in terrain that is sheltered from the wind.

    We may see Wet Loose avalanches at lower elevations that receive rain today. These should be on the smaller side but may still be consequential in areas with terrain traps like trees, rocks, or gullies in avalanche runout zones.

     

    (4/19/2026)

    Predicted snowfall totals from 4am Sunday through 4am Monday.

    Graphic courtesy of NWS Anchorage.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Today's active weather will add weight to the snowpack, pushing buried weak layers toward their breaking point. Several layers of faceted snow in the upper snowpack may reawaken today, producing avalanches up to 2' deep or deeper. While you may notice some signs like cracking or collapsing, it is unlikely this type of avalanche will give much feedback even when conditions are unstable.

    The combination of the new and windblown snow on top of a snowpack with known weak layers is a good reason to travel conservatively today. This problematic snowpack is best managed by avoiding spending time on or below steep terrain.

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