Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

New snow on Wednesday will fall on exceptionally weak faceted surfaces and very firm crusts that developed over two weeks of cold and dry weather. Southwest winds will slowly build more reactive slabs near ridgelines and across open terrain features at upper elevations. Travel with caution and go around steeper slopes where you find around 6 inches of new or drifted snow, as these are places where the danger may be closer to MODERATE (2 of 5).

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Light snowfall and steady winds on Wednesday will start to build fresh slabs on northerly and easterly-facing slopes. These slabs will form on top of a variety of old snow surfaces like a hard crust, surface hoar, or pile of weak, sugary snow. Depth of fresh slabs will be a significant driver of sensitivity, potential avalanche size, and where the avalanche danger lands - either LOW (1of5) versus MODERATE (2of5).

    You can identify these more problematic drifts by looking for lens-shaped or pillowy areas, and paying attention to where the snow surface is slightly stiffer. If you see cracks shoot out in front of your skis or machine, you are likely on top of a fresh drift. Pay attention to how much new snow you find as you move up in elevation and choose lower-angled or wind-sheltered terrain to avoid freshly drifted hazards.

    Today's snow will be falling and drifted onto a variety of surfaces including weak faceted snow, firm crusts, and in some places preserved surface hoar. Slabs of wind drifted snow will be building throughout the day and increasing in their sensitivity as they gain size.

    Photo: Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Today marks the first notable change in the weather in some time, with the long-anticipated return of snowfall in the forecast. Prior to this, the biggest changes we’ve been noticing day to day have been the significant faceting and surface hoar growth that’s been widespread across the entire forecast region. This weak snow has yet to cause us any avalanche problems, because of the missing key ingredient of an overlying slab.Figuratively speaking. The avalanche engine has been turned off for the last two weeks, but the machine is far from disabled, rather it has just been parked at the shop. During extended high pressure, the mechanics have been hard at work, heavily faceting the upper snowpack and fostering crops of large surface hoar for when the time comes to get back on the road. The only thing that’s been missing is a driver. And today, we expect the new snowfall and southwest winds to eagerly take the wheel.This morning, the engine has been fired up, and it’s idling. We don’t have much new snow on the ground yet, but it’s coming. The needle is moving in the direction of instability, but today’s snow is forecasted to be even keeled and light footed. The problem is that the gears have been greased so heavily that even the slightest nudge at the throttle might send us off the road.If new snowfall amounts today exceed the current forecast, or southwest winds create drifts greater than 6 inches, expect the danger to be closer to MODERATE (2 of 5). The new snow is expected to bond poorly to the variety of weak surfaces that exist in many places. Exercise caution around steeper terrain and be leery of the freshly drifted snow. Conditions are expected to get worse before they get better with additional snowfall and steady southwest winds in the extended forecast. Pay close attention to how much new snow is accumulating in the areas that you chose to recreate, and adjust your travel plans accordingly to avoid being involved in a dangerous slide. Make sure to keep your avalanche brain engaged and continue to use good travel habits. If you get out and about, please consider dropping us an observation HERE or through the AvyApp. Something as simple as describing the weather and surface conditions goes a long way to help our forecast products and your local avalanche community. We have received some very helpful public observations recently, and we look forward to more.

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