Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The size and likelihood of avalanches will increase as you climb into windy terrain. You can reduce your risk of triggering large avalanches by avoiding steep slopes with harder, wind-drifted snow at the surface.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Recent winds have formed slabs up to 3 feet thick in upper and some middle elevation terrain. Wind slabs form near ridgelines and in cross-loaded areas on the sides of gullies. Look for recent cornices, dunes, or ripples on the snow surface. Feel for denser snow near the surface. These are signs the wind has been at work, transporting snow. Look for and avoid steep slopes that have these snow surface characteristics.

     

    (12/28/2025)

    A natural large wind slab avalanche and widespread wind-affected snow surfaces up in the Southern Sawtooth Range.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    While unlikely, we can't write off triggering large avalanches failing on weak interfaces deeply buried in the snowpack. The snowpack has weak interfaces both in the upper half (mostly around crusts) and more deeply buried (weak sugary facets). We’ve seen natural avalanches failing on both interfaces during the snowfall and wind events a few days ago. 

    These avalanches are most likely to be triggered in windy and/or rocky areas where the snowpack depth is variable and in more sheltered terrain where the snowpack depth is around 3 feet deep. You can reduce the chances of triggering these avalanches by avoiding steep, rocky, wind-affected slopes.

     

     

    (12/28/2025)

    Paradise Peak and West Fork Big Creek large natural avalanches

    Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche conditions are tricky right now. The likelihood of triggering an avalanche is slowly dropping, but the consequences of the avalanche you could trigger are still big. To avoid triggering a large avalanche, keep “avoid steep wind-loaded slopes” at the front of your mind.

Hypothetically, let’s say someone reported an avalanche they triggered later today. Before they told us where in the terrain it was triggered, I would take a strong guess that it was in middle to upper elevations, on a steep, wind-affected, rocky slope. The avalanche type was most likely a wind slab, but it could’ve also been a larger persistent slab. Things can get messy when thinking about overlapping avalanche problems, but unfortunately, that’s our reality right now. Let's try to simplify it. 

Currently, we are concerned about avalanches failing at three distinct layers within the snowpack. Near the surface, avalanches are possible in wind-loaded terrain. In the middle of the snowpack, large avalanches can be triggered on a crust-and-facet combination. Beneath it all, weak snow persists near the ground. In many areas, two or even all three of these problems are stacked on top of each other. Since the storm around Christmas, we have observed natural avalanches failing on all three of these layers. However, most recent avalanches share a common driver: wind. Wind-loaded slopes have been the primary source of instability over the past week, whether through fresh wind slabs or wind slabs that overload deeper weak layers and push facets past their breaking point.

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