Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist with a significant rain on snow event. Expect large wet avalanches to run from mid and high elevations Monday night through Tuesday as snow levels rise to 7,500ft. Stay off of, and out from underneath steep slopes and beware of potential for unusual avalanches like glide slabs and debris flows in creek beds.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Very heavy rain is expected to drench the once beautiful powdery, dry snow. The rain on snow is a huge concern for wet slab avalanches. Many locations hold 1-2.5ft of recent snow sitting on a variety of buried weak surfaces and/ or a crust. The heavy snow and rain adds weight and may soak deeper in to the pack, which could trigger a round of natural avalanches. Slides could propagate widely, and entrain heavy wet debris as they flow downhill.  Because of the shallow snowpack, any large wet avalanche could easily scour all the way to the ground, creating an ugly risk. Glide slabs and debris flows could also occur in this type of scenario. 

    Slides could be larger and more abundant from higher elevation slopes. Nevertheless, there is potential for slides to run down onto roads and summer trails at mid elevations. At lower elevations we might see smaller but still potentiall dangerous wet loose avalanches from steep slopes with continuous snow cover.

    Example large wet avalanche from Liberty Bell 3 path in January of 2021. Though the skies won't look like this tomorrow, the debris could. 

Avalanche Discussion

Temperatures have hit 33 degrees at 6,600ft on Washington Pass as I write, and the warm up continues. The incoming heavy rain and snow should be a great 'test' for our early season snowpack. Travel may become very difficult in the wet, heavy snow. Besides avalanche danger, the risk of other things like swiftly flowing creeks, mud flows and falling trees present a real hazard.

Professionals have been finding from 2.5-5ft of snow on the ground between eastern parts of the Washington Pass corridor and further west nearer the pass proper. On Monday, Willie observed some whumphing collapses as low as 3,000ft near Cutthroat, and some shooting cracks higher up. He saw a recent natural slab beneath the cliff on Hinkhouse Peak (see photo below). This may be a small peek into the types of slides we could see tonight and tomorrow.  The best strategy in this type of scenario is to wait it out until temperatures cool and the snowpack stabilizes.

If you got out, please let us know what you found in the mountains by submitting an observation.

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