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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 8th, 2015–Apr 9th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

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The main avalanche problem should be possible small loose wet avalanches on solar slopes. Use caution on slopes below cornices and on ridges where it can be hard to know if a cornice is present.

Detailed Forecast

The weak shortwave, moisture and instability should continue to linger over Washington on Thursday. So expect cumulus and a slight chance of showers will be forecast again Thursday afternoon mainly over the central and south Cascades on both sides of the crest. This weather will not greatly change snow conditions.

It's April, so be aware of the increased sun effects reaching more aspects and affecting the snow surface fairly quickly. Loose wet avalanches involving shallow amounts of recent storm snow will be possible Thursday, especially in any direct sun on solar slopes.  

Cornices won't be highlighted as an avalanche problem due to the cool weather but use caution on slopes below cornices and on ridges where it can be hard to know if a cornice is present.

Snowpack Discussion

The recent active weather since about mid March has brought little snowfall east of the crest where there has been a long period of snowpack consolidation and stabilizing.

A TAY report from Mt. Stuart Thursday had 6-12" of unconsolidated snow even on solar aspects above treeline, possibly a benefit from of the convergence zone over a week ago.

Reports via TAY and from NWAC observer Jeremy Allyn around Washington Pass last weekend indicate shallow powder over crusts on north slopes, corn snow and crusts on solar slopes, and no signs of instability. Greater recent storm snow was being preserved west of Rainy Pass, where about 10 inches of great unconsolidated powder was seen on shaded terrain at higher elevations, providing a bit of welcome powder skiing!

A weak shortwave, moisture and instability is causing cumulus and light showers Wednesday mainly over the central and south Cascades on both sides of the crest.

Snowdepths vary greatly across the east slopes with a regionally healthy snowpack in the northeast Cascades to bare solar and lower elevation slopes in the central and southeast Cascades. Many areas at lower elevations and further away from the Cascade crest do not have enough snow to cause an avalanche danger.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.