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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 2nd, 2015–Apr 3rd, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Olympics.

Changing weather may require careful snow and terrain evaluation mainly above treeline on the highest peaks of the Olympics Thursday.

Detailed Forecast

A moderate front and short wave trough will cross the the Northwest on Friday afternoon and evening. Rain or snow should begin over the Olympics Friday morning.

Increasing winds and increasing snow mainly above and near treeline should build new wind and storm slab Thursday mainly above treeline. These new layers should still be fairly shallow at Hurricane by the end of the afternoon but may be deeper on the highest peaks of the Olympics. The danger will be greater if the snowfall is heavier than expected by the end of the afternoon.

Even though Friday should overall be cool and cloudy it is April and the sun is getting much stronger. So possible loose wet avalanches involving recent storm snow will remain in the forecast as well and emphasized for solar slopes. This should be mainly above treeline on the highest peaks of the Olympics.

Snowpack Discussion

The storm snow received since mid March at Hurricane Ridge mostly melted near and below treeline during the warm and occasionally rainy weather.

A few inches of snow fell Tuesday, well short of what is needed to build a meaningful snowpack at Hurricane. No recent snowpack observations have been received from the Olympics. 

Most areas near and below treeline in the Olympics do not have enough snow to cause an avalanche danger.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.