Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Triggering a persistent slab avalanche is still possible on northwest through east-facing terrain at all elevations. We were able to produce a collapse with shooting cracks on an east-facing test slope yesterday illustrating that our snowpack is still adjusting in places. These avalanches are capable of propagating wide distances and would be large enough to bury, injure or kill you. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully today - avoiding terrain greater than 35 degrees will help mitigate the hazard. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3

    24 to 36+ inch slabs rest over two buried weak layers of concern. The first layer you'll encounter is a layer of 1mm Near-Surface Facets buried 60-70cm from the surface. The second layer is 2-3mm large-grained facets buried 80-100cm down. We have been able to get results on both layers in our long column tests from easy to moderate force. Due to the depth and length of time since our last loading event, it's getting more difficult to trigger an avalanche. However, when or if you are able to, our long column tests have illustrated an alarming ability to propagate, with slabs collapsing and shooting off the column with little resistance. 

    The most likely areas to trigger these avalanches are on northwest through east aspects near and above treeline in areas where the slabs are thinner and you are more likely to impact these buried weak layers. The size of these avalanches could approach D3 in size above treeline or on well-connected open terrain. Pay attention to signs of instability such as shooting cracks and audible collapses. Stay out of terrain steeper than 35 degrees.

    West and southeast aspects saw significant solar effects on Jan 2 and 3rd and have since formed a melt-freeze crust that is reducing the likelihood of triggering an avalanche. However, there is still poor structure on these aspects, so don't let your guard down just yet. 

     

     

     

Avalanche Discussion

We were able to get an east-facing test slope at 11,000' to collapse with shooting cracks yesterday. We couldn't reproduce this throughout the rest of our tour but it illustrates that there are areas, specifically slopes that didn't avalanche naturally, that are still adjusting. Recent winds also did a number on any exposed terrain. We found stiffening of the surfaces with breakable wind crusts, firm supportable wind board, and large sculpted sastrugi near ridge-tops making for challenging skiing conditions. North facing, wind-sheltered terrain is still harboring soft, dry snow. A mostly unsupportable melt-freeze crust has also formed on southerly aspects at all elevations. 

In our test pits we are still able to get propagating results with easy to moderate force. We are seeing failures on a layer of 1mm near-surface facets and larger grained 2-3mm facets buried a little bit deeper. In general, triggering a persistent slab avalanche right now will release a 2 to 4ft slab of snow and has the potential to propagate wide distances on open, well-connected terrain. We're talking about very dangerous and consequential avalanches. We need to give our snowpack more time to try and gain some strength. Having nearly doubled our snowpack during the end of January we can hopefully start to heal some of our buried weaknesses but only time will tell. 

In the meantime, it's a good idea to give this avalanche problem a wide berth and travel conservatively and cautiously in and around avalanche terrain. I would recommend avoiding terrain 35 degrees or greater. Over the past several days we have found the best skiing to be in wind-sheltered terrain near and below treeline. 

Regions covered