Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Human-triggered avalanches are possible. Slides are most likely on steep slopes where hard layers of wind-drifted snow sit at the snow surface. Avalanches can be triggered remotely—from below, above, and to the sides of steeper terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    "Weak snow near the ground" is the mantra of the winter. Two months ago, we buried a widespread, thick layer of facets. This layer has been responsible for the vast majority of the avalanche activity we've seen since. Unfortunately, it's shown few signs of improvement. 

    Recent storms have deposited thick, dense slabs at the snow surface, making this layer harder to impact. In some portions of the zone, we're headed toward a low-probability but high-consequence avalanche problem. Your odds of triggering an avalanche on this layer are relatively low, but the resulting slide would be large and destructive. 

    These avalanches are most likely in very steep, rocky, wind-affected terrain where more "trigger points" exist. Trigger points are locations where the overlying slab is thinner and the weight of you and-or your sled can more easily impact the weak layer. 

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION:Recent storms produced many natural and human-triggered avalanches on a layer of facets and surface hoar, including the large avalanche in the Croy Canyon photo to the right/below. Recent observations indicate that this layer has gained strength. However, I wouldn't discount it just yet, particularly where it presents as a standing stripe of surface hoar.

    (2/3/2021) This large slide likely occurred sometime Tuesday night (2/2) or Wednesday morning (2/3). It released on a 7,700' E-facing slope in Croy Canyon above Democrat Gulch.

Avalanche Discussion

Snowfall has returned to the northern and western portions of the forecast area as a series of Pacific storms impact the region through tomorrow. You can see our updated storm table here, or check out your favorite weather station here. While up to 20" of new snow are expected up north, the Soldier and Wood River Valley Zone may only receive 4-6" by tomorrow night.

This amount of new snow isn't likely to change the stability equation, but tricky avalanche conditions remain. The recent extreme wind event formed hard slabs on many slopes. These slabs formed over a generally shallow, weak snowpack. Slabs that support the weight of skiers and sledders are notorious for producing avalanches that break wider or higher than expected. To reduce your risk, seek out terrain that's more sheltered from the wind. 

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