Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    We have little to no observations from above treeline due to adventurous travel conditions in the lower elevations instituting a high price of admission to access alpine terrain. However, stormy weather Wednesday and Thursday likely brought moderate snow accumulations to locations close to the Crest and above 6000ft in elevation. During this time, weather stations also recorded strong winds, likely building slabs on lee aspects. Lowering snow levels, additional precipitation, and strong ridgeline winds will increase the size and distribution of wind slabs. 

    The places you may be able to trigger these wind slabs are near ridges, bases of cliffs, and on wind-exposed slopes in areas near and above treeline. Wind slabs will likely be larger and more dangerous in the upper elevations and areas closer to the Crest that received more snow during the storm. But even small wind slabs can have high consequences in extreme terrain. Travel cautiously, look for blowing snow as you approach ridges, and monitor changes in the feel of the surface snow. If you find soft new snow transitioning to stiff hollow sounding snow or see shooting cracks, you should follow lower angle routes. You can also use your probe or ski pole to feel for stiff wind deposited snow.

    (11/23/2021)

    Example of a small wind slab in steep alpine terrain. 

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    It has been a roller coaster ride of freezing levels over the past week. Inversion conditions in the eastern valleys further complicate the situation, with low elevations locked beneath think crusts and upper elevations barely freezing. 3500ft freezing levels on Thursday will likely refreeze snow surfaces overnight before temperatures begin a steady uphill march, topping out at 7500ft by Friday evening. The likelihood of these avalanches will increase in the afternoon with rapidly warming temperatures and sun on southern aspects. 

    Dry snow is more susceptible to warming temperatures, and any new snow may slide and entrain easily. The lack of significant new snow depths and a snowpack well adjusted to the melt-freeze cycle will probably keep wet loose avalanches small in size at mid and lower elevations. But if you are sinking past your calves in unconsolidated wet snow, you may want to stick to less consequential terrain. These avalanches may be larger at higher elevations and areas where the wind has drifted snow. If you observe new dry snow beginning to moisten or roller balls begin to entrain additional snow, move to lower angle or shady slopes.

    (1/9/2022)

    Example of small loose wet avalanches in steep sun-exposed terrain. 

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

This storm probably won't significantly improve the current conditions, and travel will likely remain challenging. It may be just enough to freshen surfaces at higher elevations. But you can still expect to find a variety of surfaces conditions including, crusts, dust on crust, wet unconsolidated snow, and large piles of avalanche debris to navigate. New snow may cover up surface hoar that has been observed sitting on the crust on shaded slopes. Whether this snow rests on crusts or weak snow grains, quick hand pits will be a great way to observe how well the storm snow sticks to the underlying surface.

 

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