Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

A strong arctic ridge of high pressure dominates conditions for the forecast period. Clear and dry conditions are expected for the next three days with a bit of a warming trend.Monday night: Clear and cold, treeline temperature around -10C, ridgetop winds light NETuesday: Clear and sunny, treeline temperature around -7C, ridgetop winds light variableWednesday: Clear and sunny, treeline temperature around -6, possibility of an alpine temperature inversion - ridgetop winds light variableThursday: Sunny with some cloudy periods, some flurries with a possibility of an alpine temperature inversion, light ridge top winds.

We have been receiving less reports of natural activity in the last couple days, but the natural avalanches that have occurred have been increasing in size. Neighbouring regions reported natural activity up to size 2.5. Conditions are ideal for human triggering right now and we have received numerous reports of skier triggered avalanches, many of which have released quite deep in the snowpack. Several of these avalanches were remotely triggered.On Sunday operations were getting widespread explosive triggered results. The farthest ran 600km and the was 200m wide with a crown of 150cm. That particular slope had run earlier in the season on the basal face layer and since re-loaded..On Monday, two, size 2 skier accidentals  were reported with one of them 40m wide, having a fracture line of 60cm that ran for 250m.

A cohesive slab with an average thickness of 1m sits on a nasty persistent weak layer (surface hoar/facet/crust combo) that was formed during the preceding month of cold, dry weather. This weak layer is widespread at all elevations and aspects, and is creating problems even in previously skied terrain. Large settlements and whumpfs have been reported at all elevations. We have received numerous reports of remotely-triggered avalanches from as far as 500m away which indicates a high likelihood of large propagation within the weak layer. Touchy conditions are expected to remain in place longer than we're normally accustomed to. Recent strong winds out of the SW through NW have created wind slabs on lee features in wind exposed areas at treeline and above. In many wind loaded areas, a slab of up to 2 m thickness overlies the persistent weak layer creating conditions for very large avalanches.Weak basal facets and depth hoar have been noted in reports from some areas, but triggering has now become unlikely. For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated.