Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

New snow and wind transported snow, will increase the likelihood of triggering an avalanche on Friday. Be very cautious of wind loaded slopes in avalanche terrain.

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wind out of the southeast, south, and west will be moving snow around Thursday night and Friday. Look for new wind slabs forming on lee slopes, below ridgetops, high points, and around other features that catch blowing snow. Wind slabs tend to be most sensitive to triggering while they are forming and while they are still fresh. Cracking in wind transported snow is a good sign wind slabs are sensitive to triggering. Most wind slab avalanches on Friday will be small, but look for deeper slabs on isolated terrain features that become heavily wind loaded. Some features can accumulate wind blown snow many times deeper than the storm total. 

    Watch for signs of blowing snow, fresh cornices, pillow drifts, and wavy surface texture as signs that slopes are wind loaded. Observe the depth of wind transported snow on small test slopes when possible; wind slabs of 8" deep or more start to become something to be reckoned with in the right terrain. 

Avalanche Discussion

The incoming storm is expected to come in cold. I'm not expecting the storm snow to have enough accumulation for a real storm slab or loose dry problem. 

Storm snow from the last week has generally had time to find its place in the snowpack and stay put (i.e. not likely to avalanche).  In the mid pack, a series of crust sandwiches can be found that are a reminder of the rain event before Christmas. This serves as a good marker for all the snow that fell afterwards. No active weak layers have been reported in the lower and mid pack. 

An avalanche on Sand Mountain (Santiam Pass area) was observed from afar on Wednesday (NE aspect, no information on type, size, or trigger). No other avalanche activity has been reported recently. 

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