Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger will rise to considerable tonight as 10-19 inches of snow accumulates above 4,000 ft. The intensity of the incoming storm will increase after 4 p.m. Be prepared for strong to gale force winds and low wind chills. Castle Lake Road is closed.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Avalanche danger will rise to considerable near and above treeline tonight as southerly winds combine with significant new snow to form wind slabs. Natural avalanches will be possible and human-triggered avalanches likely.

    Predicted snow amounts vary, but since we have that southerly flow, which tends to squeeze out more moisture, we are going with the more optimistic numbers: 10-19 inches.

    Pay attention to how much snow is accumulating and where it is blowing. Test for wind slabs by stomping on wind drifts and roll overs in safe terrain. If you see blocking or shooting cracks, then wind slabs may be forming in the lee of ridges. Evaluate steep terrain carefully if venturing in or near it.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Storm slabs may form near and below treeline where temperatures are warmer and there is less affect from the winds. These soft, cohesive slabs could sit atop a breakable crust under which low density, non-cohesive snow lies (a weak layer). Look for these on steep slopes over 35 degrees. They may be sensitive to human trigger and could sweep you into undesirable terrain.

Avalanche Discussion

Most concern for avalanches will start after dark when the bulk of the snow is expected to fall. If you are brave enough to still be out then, fasten your seatbelts - it's going to be a bumpy night. Be prepared for strong to gale force winds and low wind chills.

Castle Lake Road is closed and there is no estimate on when it will open. One pass to Methodist Camp has been made, but snow removal operations are not in progress.

The county policy this year is to close Everitt Memorial Highway if winter warnings are issued below 4,000 ft. It's open today, but will close early tomorrow morning. We'll keep you updated on the status here and on social media.

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